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Making 5 year predictions

While developing an intranet for Quebecor in 1996, I was asked to make 7 year predictions as to what they'd need from a hardware perspective. I asked for a flying boat in year 7. Why? Why not? Commercial use web wasn't even that old. An academic project had Microsoft in panic mode, revising its business plans from the ground up. Who could predict the hardware needs of a revolution?

A few weeks ago, Information Week columnist Jon Udell pointed out that Apple was pretty close when they released their Knowledge Navigator video in 1988.

That reminded me of an AT&T video I remembered seeing in one of Dr. Kasch's classes. I tried to find a copy using Google, but I'm going to have to add that to the list of things I can't find online. On a long shot, I asked Dr. Kasch if he still had that tape. He did along with a few from US West. After watching these video from 1992 and 1993, I don't think a flying boat in 2003 was too out of line.





Quicktime 113MB


AT&T - Connections, Visions of the Future (1993)

Carpet maker in unnamed remote location (on a mountain?) accepts video call from a women on a plane.

Man in front of a protest looking at building plans. Gets a call on a paper thin tablet interface. The developer presents women with court order to stop protests on paper (must be official then?).


Cut to video based game being interrupted by a message from a teenager's mom about using up all his allotted video game time on 'the system'. Teen removes what I'm assuming was supposed to represent a 3D headset to do homework.

Parents pickup daughter at airport, She wants to make a video call before getting her luggage. Her personal address book is available from the public phone after voice verification. Call is forwards automatically. Man receiving video call is speaking French. Father pushes a button to interpret conference.

Parents home. Intelligent agent interrupts with video conference call.

Women is a doctor changing a prosthetic leg for an athlete in real time.

Cut to office. Mother and daughter pick out wedding dresses.

Man goes to talk to protester about community center. Goes back to office to appeal to developer about community center.

Wedding must have been planned in 30 days. Father has mid life crisis and decides to stop the developer. Tries to call. Is told the developer is still in the office, but not accepting calls.

Goes to developer's office to find developer has already changed his mind and had his intelligent agent search databases for similar projects.

Cut to a video conference with carpet maker and a baby.




USWest - Changes on the Horizon

In this video, plans for office space already under construction are revised in a 5 minute video conference.




Quicktime 29MB





Quicktime 61MB


US West - Broadband World (1992)

Video begins with a teenage student 'in' a class being taught over a video conference. The class ends and he starts playing a rock climbing game while an adult looks on. Turns out the teenager is playing with an older women who is blowing off work. Once the game is over, she previews a commercial being created. The video editors are renaming the product and looking for video footage in a digital video archive.

Editor calls his Mom about a wedding. She pauses a cooking show she's watching for a video conference. Mother starts looking for a dress online. She pauses her browsing to video conference the actual a sales person at the actual store.

A shopper at the store is paged? Ask to use a public video phone. Call is from a fellow doctor.





US West - Flowers by Alice (1992)
Radio Announcer in the background. Traffic is backed up, but the bullet train is on time. Love that bullet train.

Man in cab using Newton size device to order flowers. Makes audio note to attach to flowers. Florist checks order management system via voice commands. Opens store when employee arrives after checking security camera, then heads to store. Florist gets bids on cooler repair from voice activated agent.

Back to man from cab. He's on plane previewing a commercial.

Florist looking at a flower arrangement for a wedding placing the arrangements into image of the church and modifying them in real time.




Quicktime 29MB